Conjoint analysis that learns
how people switch.

Upload your choice survey. Chosŏn fits a model that learns, from the choices themselves, which products people treat as substitutes, then shows the results with 95% ranges and lets you simulate the market.

What you can run

Four kinds of study on one platform. Each comes with a tutorial project and a guided tour, so you can see the full workflow on example data before you upload your own.

Choice-based conjointCBC, shelf CBC

Which product people pick from a set, what each feature and price is worth, and where share goes when the line-up changes.

Menu-based choiceMBC

Build-your-own menus and add-ons: what people buy together, how each price moves every item, and bundles.

MaxDiffbest-worst scaling

Rank a long list of features, claims or messages by preference, with a design generator for balanced sets.

TURFreach

The shortlist that reaches the most people, from a menu study or the top of each person's MaxDiff ranking.

What every study gets

The workflow from upload to decision, without scripting.

Upload checks

CSV in a long format, or a Sawtooth .CHO export. Plain-language messages for anything that won't fit, before you spend a run on it.

Results with 95% ranges

Feature and price values, shares and reach, each with a range, and a holdout check of how well the model predicts choices it did not see.

Simulator and optimizer

Change a product, a price or the whole line-up and see shares, revenue and profit move. Let the optimizer search for the best line-up.

Segments

Groups of respondents with different tastes, how distinct the groups are, and how they differ on your profile questions.

Exports

Per-respondent estimates as CSV for your own analysis.

A course built in

Short chapters on conjoint, menus, MaxDiff and TURF, each linked to the screen it explains.

Why a different model

Standard conjoint software estimates what each respondent likes, then decides how people switch with a fixed rule: products that share features are treated as similar. Chosŏn learns switching from the survey instead.

Learns how people switch

When a product is missing, the model knows where its buyers go: the same flavor, the same pack, the same brand, or anywhere. You don't draw a decision tree or declare which features count before the study.

Near-duplicates split share

Line extensions, flavors and pack sizes that people see as close substitutes share demand, so adding a variant doesn't inflate the line's total.

Forecast levels you can use

Go / no-go decisions depend on the level of the forecast, not only which option ranks first. In our tests the level lands within about 3% of the truth.

Full-shelf studies

Test the shelf as people see it, 20 to 60 products at once, with switching learned across all of them, in minutes.

The numbers

From simulated studies where the true preferences are known, so every answer can be scored. No real study with a holdout market has been run yet; if you have one, become a beta tester.

1.85 pts
less share lost when picking a product range from 20 products, against the standard HB workflow with its similarity rule. 95% range 1.30 to 2.40 points.
Range test, 20 products
~3%
from the true volume and profit level. Simulating over HB draws came out 11 to 20% low on the same test.
Range test, forecast level
3.7 min
to fit a 60-product shelf with switching learned across every product. At 20 products the same kind of fit used to take about 4.5 hours.
Full-shelf tests, 20 and 60 products
1.6–2.2×
more share misplaced by the standard readout than by Chosŏn on a 60-product shelf where people switch within brand, flavor and pack.
Full-shelf test, 60 products

Decisions where it matters

Where shoppers see some products as closer substitutes than others, learning how they switch changes the answer.

Line extensions

Will a new flavor or size grow the brand, or take its sales from your bestseller?

Line extensions →

Ranging

Which products can go, and where do their buyers go when they do?

Ranging →

Case study

Which 6 of 20? A ranging test where the right answer is known.

Read it →

Four ways to use it free

Pick the one that fits. Every route includes all four study types, the simulator, the optimizer and the course.

Free

Homework-size studies, for as long as you like.

Free trial

30 days with a few larger runs, to try it on a real study.

Academic

The trial's larger runs, with a .edu email address.

Beta tester

A real problem and real data, in return for your feedback. Includes our largest runs.

Frequently asked questions

What data do I need?

The survey's design and each respondent's choices: one row per product shown, with the respondent, the task, the features and whether it was chosen. Sawtooth .CHO exports load directly. The tutorial projects show the format, and the upload screen tells you what's missing.

How big a study fits on the Free plan?

For choice-based conjoint: up to 300 respondents, 12 tasks each, 5 products per task and 25 estimated values (what's free, in full). Menu studies up to 300 respondents, 12 menus and 12 items; MaxDiff up to 300 respondents, 20 sets of up to 6, and 30 items. That covers class projects and small pilots. Larger studies run on the trial, academic and beta routes.

What is the model?

A probit choice model with random tastes and correlated errors. The correlations are what carry switching: two products whose errors move together are substitutes. Estimating this at shelf size used to take hours; Chosŏn does it in minutes. The course explains it without the algebra.

Do I have to learn the method first?

No. Each study type has a tutorial project with a guided tour that walks through the results screens. The course is there if you want the background.

Is my data private?

Your projects are visible only to your account. To have a project and its data deleted, email info@quantecarlo.com.

Who is Quante Carlo?

A small optimization company in Claverack, New York. Chosŏn is its conjoint platform.